This study developed a detailed truck traffic forecasting model with specific attention to truck movements related to oil development in the Bakken formation in eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Oil forecast scenarios as specified by MDT were analyzed to assess the differences in impacts under differing development scenarios. Locations of input sources were identified through industry websites, Departments of Transportation, and other regulatory bodies. Routes between aggregate well locations and input and output sources were estimated utilizing ESRI Network Analyst©. A series of capacity constrained optimization models were used to select the least cost set of routes for oil distribution in the region, and results were aggregated to the highway segment level. Traffic data provided by MDT was used to calibrate and validate the traffic forecasting model.

The overall research effort was led by the Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute (UGPTI) at North Dakota State University, on behalf of the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT). This project consists of a small subcontract, in which WTI researchers conducted data analysis tasks for UGPTI.