Travel Demand Forecasting Model for Gallatin Valley

The objective of this project is to develop a travel demand forecasting model for Gallatin County, Montana, which will support current rural land use planning and analysis efforts.

Dispersed land use patterns are common in rural areas. However, this kind of development pattern generally results in environmental degradation and higher costs for governmental services. Compact growth or concentrated development patterns may help local governments reduce infrastructure and service costs, but local governments need estimates of the costs associated with different development patterns in order to make informed decisions. The Sonoran Institute, a conservation research and policy center, is conducting rural land use modeling and developing estimates for the relative costs of different development scenarios. One measure of potential costs is vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Through this project, WTI will develop a travel demand forecasting model that can be used to estimate VMT. Using Gallatin County, Montana, as the study area, the model will be applied to several land development scenarios. For each scenario, the model results will include estimates of VMT totals, and summary maps showing traffic flow.